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Role Description

We are seeking an experienced analyst who combines applied political economy expertise with strong quantitative skills – specifically experience in price transmission modelling and/or econometric analysis – and who can translate complex economic findings into clear, operationally useful guidance for HDP practitioners.

• Design the economic transmission pathway framework, mapping how US-Iran conflict shocks travel through key channels to HDP-relevant outcomes across the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa.
• Develop a scenario architecture describing three distinct political-economic states with qualitatively different HDP implications.
• Produce an inception note confirming the report outline, analytical approach, scenario definitions, case selection rationale, and key informant engagement plan.
• Design and run commodity price transmission models tracing the causal pathway from Hormuz disruption and oil price shocks through to food basket prices across all three scenarios.
• Produce scenario-based food price forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals, using established price transmission frameworks applied to open-source datasets.
• Document modelling methodology, data sources, and limitations clearly for integration into the methodology section of the report.
• Produce data visualisations (e.g., transmission pathway diagrams, global transmission exposure maps, scenario price impact heat maps).
• Produce analytical snapshots for each confirmed case geography, covering primary transmission channels and operational implications for HDP actors.
• Conduct structured key informant interviews, synthesising and quality-assuring input rather than relying on extended desk research.
• Produce a cross-cutting section on the global HDP funding architecture under conflict conditions.
• Draft scenario-differentiated recommendations across three functional areas: programme design and modality choices; resource allocation and geographic prioritisation; funding and advocacy.
• Draft a concise executive summary of approximately 2 pages suitable for senior HDP leadership and donor audiences.
• Actively learn about safeguarding and integrate it into their work.

Qualifications

• Advanced degree in economics, political economy, international development or a related field, or equivalent professional experience, with a strong applied quantitative component.
• Demonstrable experience with price transmission modelling, econometric analysis or equivalent quantitative methods applied to real-world fragile or conflict-affected contexts.
• Experience producing applied political economy analysis in conflict or fragile state contexts across the Middle East, South Asia or East Africa.
• Familiarity with open-source economic, humanitarian and development data sets and platforms.
• Track record of producing publication-quality written analysis under tight timelines.
• Experience conducting structured key informant interviews and synthesising qualitative inputs into quantitative analytical products.

Requirements

• Country or sub-regional expertise in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa or South Asia.
• Experience in producing quality GIS and data visualisations to communicate analysis findings.
• Knowledge of US sanctions architecture and its effects on regional trade, financial and banking systems.
• Experience with oil market economics, food systems analysis or commodity price dynamics specifically.
• Familiarity with the global HDP funding architecture and major donor behaviour under conflict and austerity conditions.

Benefits

• Fully remote work environment.
• Regular video calls with the project team and country office key informants across multiple time zones.
• 5% of time dedicated to learning activities for personal and professional growth.

How to Apply

Please submit a CV, a cover note of no more than one page describing your quantitative modelling experience and your approach to producing operational recommendations from applied political economy analysis, and a writing sample of directly relevant analytical work demonstrating both technical rigor and clear communication for a non-technical audience.